Where we are now
Top 5 facts
- Half of all energy-related CO2 emissions come from 4 countries; the US, China, Russia and Japan, with the US accounting for 21%.
- In 2005, overall UK emissions rose by 10.5 MtC over 2004.
- 93% of emissions attributed from the transport sector come from road transport.
- Emissions from aviation have doubled since 1990.
- The UK is responsible for 2.1% of global carbon emissions, yet has less than 1% of the world's population.
Global emissions
The current average global temperature is approximately 15°C
According to the recent Stern Review, the current concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is 430 ppmv. This is increasing at a rate of 2 ppmv per year.
In 2005, carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels climbed to a record high of 7.9 billion tonnes (metric tons), an increase of some 3 percent from the previous year.
This is a growth by a factor of fifteen since 1900, working out as an average increase of 3% per year.
Of the 7.9 billion tonnes emitted from the burning of fossil fuels:
- 40% can be attributed to the electricity generation sector.
- 21% can be attributed to the transportation sector.
- 17% can be attributed to the industrial sector.
- 14% can be attributed to the sector responsible for residential and commercial buildings.
- The remaining 8% accounts for other areas, including the fuels burned by sea-ships.
[Chart showing Global Carbon Emissions by Sector.]
[Table of figures for the Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning 2005]
Half of all energy-related carbon emissions come from only four countries, the United States, China, Russia and Japan.
The US alone, with less than 5% of the world's population, accounts for 21% of carbon emissions.
[Table showing the top emitting countries]
[Table showing the top per-capita emitting countries]
UK emissions
In 2005, the UK emitted a total of 157.4 Megatonnes of Carbon (MtC). Because 4.5 MtC were absorbed by sinks, the level of net emissions is given at 153 MtC. This is a rise of 0.5 MtC from the 2004 level but a reduction of 5.3 per cent on the base-level of 1990. The Carbon sinks have removed 14 per cent (0.6 MtC) more emissions than at the 1990 level.
[Chart showing the 2005 UK CO2 emissions breakdown by sector]
[Table ofthe emissions from the years 1900-2005]
Of the 157.4 MtC produced by the UK in 2005:
- 46.8 MtC (30%) were emitted as a result of the electricity generation from power stations.
Of this:- 20 MtC (42.6%) was attributed to the industrial sector
- 13 MtC (27.7%) to the domestic sector. (This was 25 per cent higher than the l990 level)
- 13 MtC (27.7%) to the commercial and public sector
- 1 MtC (2%) to the transport sector
- 37 MtC (24%) were emitted by other industrial sectors.
- 35.1 MtC (22%) were emitted by the transport sector. Emissions from transport sector rose by 0.5 per cent and are now 10 per cent higher than in 1990.
- 93 per cent of this total was from road transport
- [UNFCCC guidelines do not require the inclusion of international aviation and shipping. They must simply be included as a memo in national greenhouse gas inventories. Emissions from international aviation and shipping are excluded from the internationally agreed reporting framework.] However, emissions from international aviation and shipping can be estimated from refuelling from bunkers at UK airports and ports (whether by UK or non-UK operators).
- Aviation has been estimated at 4.3 MtC in 1990 and 9.1 MtC in 2004.
- Shipping has been estimated at 1.9 MtC in 1990 and 1.6 MtC in 2004.
This shows that aviation has doubled in this fourteen year period and is predicted to increase much further, if we continue on the 'business as usual' path.
It has also been shown that high altitude appears to have a greenhouse effect over and above that of carbon dioxide alone. However this is not reflected in this indicator. - 24.1 MtC (15%) were emitted by the domestic sector. This was a rise of 0.5 per cent from 2004 levels and an increase of 13 per cent on the 1990 base-level. This is due primarily to an increase in households. Energy use per household has not risen by this amount.
- 6.2 MtC (4%) were emitted by the commercial and public sector. This is a fall of 0.5 per cent between 2004 and 2005 and an overall fall of 10.5 per cent from 1990 level.
- 5.2 MtC (3%) were emitted by the land use change and agricultural sector. This is 15 per cent lower than in 1990.
- 2.9 MtC (2%) were emitted by other sectors, including waste and fugitive emissions from fuels.
[To see the full table and graph of aviation and shipping emissions from 1990 to 2004, click here.]
[Why aren't international aviation and shipping included in domestic targets? click here to join the debate.]
In 2005, 149 MtC were emitted from fossil fuels. This is a decrease in 4.5 per cent on 1990 level.
- Of this 149 MtC:
- 44 per cent was from gas
- 37 per cent was from oil
- 19 per cent from coal (and other solids).
- These three fossil fuels have varying degrees of environmental efficiency.
- Gas is the most efficient, producing just 99 tonnes of CO2 per Gigawatt hour of electricity.
- Oil is the next efficient, producing about 207 tonnes of CO2 per Gigawatt hour of electricity.
- Coal (and other solids) are the least efficient fossil fuel, producing 238 tonnes of CO2 per Gigawatt hour of electricity.
This fact has been used in the UK to increase energy consumption at the same time as decreasing emissions from the 1990 levels by using more oil and gas. Government papers refer to this as an increase in "carbon intensity".
While this is laudable, we must be wary. This increase in intensity cannot continue indefinitely and acts to conceal the long term implications of our increasing consumption. If we are to live in a sustainable manner we must reduce our energy consumption in absolute terms as well as increasing the efficiency with which we extract it. A 25% increase in carbon intensity will not reduce carbon emissions if we demand 35% more energy in our daily lives.
Visible effects of climate change
Primary / Direct effects of climate change
-
Glacial change:
- Russia: half of all glacial ice in the Caucasus Mountains has disappeared over the past 100 years.
- Austria: The emergence of a frozen Stone Age mummy from a melting glacier in the Oetzal Alps has shown that the glacial ice there has reduced to a level not seen during the past 5,000 years.
- Spain: half of the glaciers present in 1980 have melted.
- Arctic Ocean: Ice-thickness at 29 stations have shown an average decrease if 1.2 metres (4 feet). This represents a 40% reduction in ice volume. Satelite measurements have also indicated that the area of perennial ice cover has decreased by an average of 7 per cent per decade since 1978.
-
Temperature change:
- Continental Europe warmed 0.8�C (1.4�F) during the 20th Century.
- From 1966 to 1995, annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by as much as 1�C (1.8�F) per decade, and average spring temperatures increased by 2�C (3.6�C) per decade.
- From tree-rings, ice cores and other long term temperature reconstructions it has been indicated that the 20th Century was the warmest century in the Arctic since 1600.
- The average temperature in Central England increased by approximately 0.5�C (0.9�F) over the 20th Century.
Secondary / Indirect effects of climate change (seen from the behaviour of wildlife)
- United Kingdom:
- First flowering date: 16 per cent species of flowers flowered an average of 15 days earlier in the 1990s compared to the previous four decades.
- Breeding distribution: Northern margin for many species have moved northwards by an average of 19 km (12 miles).
- Date of egg-laying: Between the years 1971 to 1995, a survey of 65 bird species in the UK showed that 31 per cent showed significant trends towards earlier egg laying by 8.8. days.
- Frog, toad and newt spawning: Over a 17-year period of study; toads, frogs and newts spawning shown to be 9-10 days earlier.
- Austria: An indirect but visible effect of climate change is the retreat of Alpine plants up the mountains. Over a 70-90 year period, alpine plants in the Austrian and Swiss Alps have moved higher up the mountain slopes because of the increase in average annual temperature.
- The Mediterranean: increase in drought and fires during the 1990s. In 1994, Spain lost more than 1.2 million acres (485,622 hectares) of forest to wildfires. In 1998, Greece and Italy both lost 370,000 acres (149,734 hectares).
- Northern Europe: Precipitation in northern Europe has increased 10-40 per cent in the last century.